Why This Research Exists
Most investment research focuses on forecasts or security selection: “What should I buy?”
This service exists to answer a different question: “How should I allocate capital under uncertainty? It focuses on position sizing, risk balance, and capital survival across regimes.
The Problem with Most Investment Research
Professional investors know this already, but it is rarely stated clearly:
Forecasts are fragile
Backtests overstate confidence
Security selection dominates attention
Position sizing and risk concentration are treated as secondary
As a result, many investors with good ideas still experience poor outcomes — not because they were wrong, but because capital was sized without sufficient regard for uncertainty, correlation and risk.
A Different Starting Point
This service starts from a principle common to institutional capital allocation and probabilistic finance:
Long-term outcomes are driven more by how capital is allocated and sized than by any single forecast or idea.
Rather than attempting to predict markets, the research focuses on:
capital survival across regimes
disciplined position sizing
explicit risk trade-offs
structural balance over full cycles
This perspective is informed by long-standing work on probabilistic capital allocation frameworks, including ideas associated with the Kelly Criterion — applied as a guide to discipline and restraint, not as a formula for optimisation.
What This Service Is — and Is Not
What It Is
Independent global investment research
Transparent, rules-based model portfolios
A monthly cadence that reinforces discipline
A framework for thinking clearly about risk, sizing, and trade-offs
What It Is Not
Not personalised investment advice
Not asset management
Not a signal service
Not a performance-marketing product
No forecasts.
No optimisation claims.
No promises.
How the Model Portfolios Are Used
The model portfolios are illustrative frameworks, not recommendations.
They are designed to show:
how exposure is balanced under uncertainty
how concentration is constrained
how adjustments are made when risk conditions change
how discipline is maintained when markets are noisy
Subscribers use them as:
a reference point
a check on their own positioning
a way to avoid unforced errors
Responsibility for decisions remains with the investor.
Why Executives and Senior Professionals Use This
Subscribers typically:
Already have access to abundant market information
are comfortable making their own decisions
value structure more than ideas
want fewer, better decisions — not more activity
They are not outsourcing judgement.
They are strengthening it.
The Value of the Subscription
The value is not extracted in any single month.
It compounds through:
repeated exposure to a consistent framework
disciplined reinforcement of risk awareness
reduced behavioural error over time
For most subscribers, the subscription is best thought of as a governance cost, not a trading expense.
A Final Word on Expectations
This service will not:
outperform every year
feel exciting in strong markets
provide certainty in uncertain times
It is designed to do something harder and more valuable:
Support clear, disciplined capital allocation when certainty is unavailable.
Independent research only
No personalised advice.
No asset management.
Built for investors who value clarity over noise.
We publish global investment research and model portfolios designed to help self-directed investors understand asset allocation, risk, and long-term portfolio construction.
We do not provide personalised investment advice or manage client assets.”